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The power of nothing to lose : the Hail Mary effect in politics, war, and business
2021
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Publishers Weekly Review
"Downside protection in politics, war, and business favors the 'deciders'," writes former NYU business professor Silber (The Story of Silver) in this unsatisfactory survey of decision making. Studying the risky "go for broke" phenomenon, he finds that it is "a surprisingly powerful weapon for understanding behavior under uncertainty in life." The ensuing examination is full of accessible anecdotes: he describes such historical figures as Woodrow Wilson and his hesitation to enter WWI out of fear of damaging his chances at reelection; Rosa Parks, whose belief that as long as Jim Crow laws lasted, "I had nothing to lose"; and Hitler's ill-fated gamble on the Battle of the Bulge. Silber also considers asylum seekers who "hazard death to escape persecution and poverty," and prisoners serving life sentences who are made into model citizens when given "something to lose." But the anecdotes never coalesce into an illuminating whole, and the idea that risks with a large payoff are tempting feels like a truism. Fit neither for established or aspiring leaders, this is an easy one to skip. Agent: Richard Abate, 3 Arts Entertainment. (Aug.)
Kirkus Review
Financial history expert Silber recapitulates a course in risk assessment, showing that generals and politicians no less than investors "take daring chances" in the absence of other options. There are upsides when people are willing to game the chances of "downside protection," writes former NYU economics professor Silber. For example, patients with terminal illnesses are crucial to the practice of medical experimentation, since many figure they don't have much to lose. That decision, writes the author, is very much like the star quarterback who throws what Roger Staubach christened "the Hail Mary pass." Never mind that the risk is turned all the way up. "The Hail Mary connects less than one in twenty times," writes Silber, "which may be okay at the end of a football game, but not as a steady diet in life." Yet the moral equivalents of the Hail Mary are frequent in our history. Silber suggests that having nothing to lose led Rosa Parks to refuse to give up her seat on a Montgomery bus. Similarly, Woodrow Wilson sent Americans to World War I not in 1915, when it could have ended the war sooner, but in 1917, after he had won reelection and didn't have to fulfill his campaign slogan of avoiding war. Writes Silber, sagely, "second-term presidents should come with a warning label: Do not provoke a lame duck." Desperation will drive people to extraordinary measures, of course, including attempting to enter a country illegally and, in the case of rogue trader Nick Leeson, taking advantage of the fact that his employer, Barings Bank, "encouraged traders to become daredevils, ignoring the fallout." (Barings collapsed in 1995.) With an eye to behavioral economics, Silber turns up a few surprises: Even though prisoners serving life sentences don't have much incentive to behave, they "resemble members of the local chamber of commerce more than Murder Incorporated." A brisk look at times when it pays off to take a chance. Copyright (c) Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.
Summary


Following books by Malcolm Gladwell and Dan Ariely, noted economics professor William L. Silber explores the Hail Mary effect, from its origins in sports to its applications to history, nature, politics, and business.

A quarterback like Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers gambles with a Hail Mary pass at the end of a football game when he has nothing to lose -- the risky throw might turn defeat into victory, or end in a meaningless interception. Rodgers may not realize it, but he has much in common with figures such as George Washington, Rosa Parks, Woodrow Wilson, and Adolph Hitler, all of whom changed the modern world with their risk-loving decisions.

In The Power of Nothing to Lose, award-winning economist William Silber explores the phenomenon in politics, war, and business, where situations with a big upside and limited downside trigger gambling behavior like with a Hail Mary. Silber describes in colorful detail how the American Revolution turned on such a gamble. The famous scene of Washington crossing the Delaware on Christmas night to attack the enemy may not look like a Hail Mary, but it was. Washington said days before his risky decision, "If this fails I think the game will be pretty well up." Rosa Parks remained seated in the white section of an Alabama bus, defying local segregation laws, an act that sparked the modern civil rights movement in America. It was a life-threatening decision for her, but she said, "I was not frightened. I just made up my mind that as long as we accepted that kind of treatment it would continue, so I had nothing to lose."

The risky exploits of George Washington and Rosa Parks made the world a better place, but demagogues have inflicted great damage with Hail Marys. Towards the end of World War II, Adolph Hitler ordered a desperate counterattack, the Battle of the Bulge, to stem the Allied advance into Germany. He said, "The outcome of the battle would spell either life or death for the German nation." Hitler failed to change the war's outcome, but his desperate gamble inflicted great collateral damage, including the worst wartime atrocity on American troops in Europe.

Silber shares these illuminating insights on these figures and more, from Woodrow Wilson to Donald Trump, asylum seekers to terrorists and rogue traders. Collectively they illustrate that downside protection fosters risky undertakings, that it changes the world in ways we least expect.

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